A Week in the Life Edition

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Oscar Preview Edition

こんにちは私の友達そして金曜日の夜へようこそは書きます。. This is the big Academy Awards preview edition. In honor of the Golden Globes being this week I have decided to look ahead to the Awards that actually mean something. We are coming out of the crux of Oscar season and nominations are going to be announced soon. I always try to see all of the major nominated films in a given before that year's Oscars presentation. I'm doing pretty well so far but it's always hard to tell what will be nominated. So I'll break down the Eight Major Races for you with the pros and cons going for each nominee and give you some of my opinions. Alright:

Academy Awards Preview

Best Picture

The Projected Five:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Paramount
The Dark Knight, Warner Brothers
Frost / Nixon, Universal
Milk, Focus Features
Slumdog Millionaire, Fox Searchlight

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -

Pros: A lock at this point. It's a large movie with a marketable star that has Oscar-bait written all over it. Reviews to this point have been great. It's already been nominated for most every pre-cursor award. Standout performances by Hollywood golden boy heartthrob Brad Pitt (Fight Club), perennially nominated thespian Cate Blanchett (The Aviator), and the very talented Tajari Henson (Smokin' Aces).

Cons: It should easily be nominated though there are five films in contention with more Critics Top Ten lists. However, in terms of trying to win it is running second place to Slumdog Millionaire right now. It has no pre-cursor awards as of yet while competitors Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, and Wall-E all do.
Overall Chances: Good but not great. It is lock to be nominated but is probably running fourth or so in terms of it's chances of actually winning. It has all of the requisites of a quality prestige pick but not the intangibles necessary to attract popular votes.

- The Dark Knight -

Pros: It had a tremendous gross during a turbulent economy that landed it as the second-highest grossing domestic film of all time. It has recieved almost unanimous critical praise. It has been recognized by many pre-cursors including the National Board of Review and winning Runner-Up honors with the Los Angeles Film Critics. Heath Ledger's (Brokeback Mountain) performance is utterly stunning and in the wake of his tragic death people are looking to honor his most memorable performance.
Cons: It was snubbed by the Golden Globes and still carries the Summer Blockbuster tag even though most voters know deep down that it is so much more than that. The Screen Actors Guild also snubbed it and it has not officially won any pre-cursor awards.
Overall Chances: In terms of bring nominated it is sitting in the five spot right now. It could easily be snubbed by the Academy but I think that most people are expecting it to take one of the two open spots. If it is nominated expect it's chances of winning to rise above those of likely fellow nominees Benjamin Button and Frost/Nixon. The Academy has chosen the most entertaining film the last two years and this year that film is The Dark Knight.

- Frost / Nixon -

Pros: It has gotten the requisite pre-cursor nods such as the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes. It is a quality film that deals with a very important political transition in American history and it slams the GOP and Richard Nixon which liberal Hollywood always enjoys. It also is buoyed by a tremendous performance by Frank Langhella (Starting Out in the Evening) as Richard Nixon, while Michael Sheen (The Queen) is no slouch as David Frost.
Cons: Of all of the five front runners it has the largest "meh" factor. That is to say it is very well-done but lacks a lot of intangibles to make it a truly special or heartfelt film. It is tense but not suspenseful and deals with historical themes rather than character relationships. Has not won any pre-cursor awards. There are also ten films that have made more critics' Top Ten lists.
Overall Chances: It is sitting in one of the two open spots for a nomination and it would be marginally surprising if it was not nominated. That being said, it is honor for it just to be nominated as it stands no real chance of winning. It doesn't tug at the heart or mind nearly enough to walk away with a win.

- Milk -

Pros: It is also a virtual lock to be nominated. It is one of only two projected nominees with a pre-cursor win as it was honored by the New York Film Critics Circle as their Best Picture. It has been critically praised by almost every reviewer. It boasts a tremendous performance by Sean Penn (Mystic River) and strong support from Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men) and James Franco (Spider-Man). In the wake of Proposition 8 a vote for Milk will also stand as a show of support for the gay community so expect several votes on that front.
Cons: The subject matter of the film may be too promiscuous and degenerate for more conservative voters. There is fear that because of the touchy political material it could get "Brokeback'd" the way that Brokeback Mountain at the 2004 Oscars.
Overall Chances: Good. Quite good. It is a lock for a nomination and I would say that it is running second to Slumdog Millionaire in terms of chances to win. It is still the underdog but I wouldn't be suprised if it were to pull a reverse Brokeback Mountain.

- Slumdog Millionaire -

Pros: An absolute lock and the favorite in this category. It has multiple wins from the National Board of Review and the Golden Globes amongst others to go with its Screen Actors Guild nomination. It has a dynamic love story, is remarkably well made, and has recieved unanimous critical praise. It has momentum and as of right now everything is going its way.
Cons: There really are not any to speak of. Except that I ended that last sentence with a preposition.
Overall Chances: It is the heavy favorite to win. It will absolutely be nominated and should be able to stave off upset bids from Milk, Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, or Wall-E. Anything else winning at this point is an upset.

- Other Possible Contenders -
Wall-E, Disney/Pixar
Doubt, Miramax
Revolutionary Road, Paramount Vantage

- A Film That Should Be Nominated -
The Wrestler, Fox Searchlight

Who will win: Slumdog Millionaire will edge Milk. A truly deserving champion.
Who Should win: The Dark Knight. An even more deserving champion.

Best Director

The Projected Five:

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost / Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

- Danny Boyle -

Pros: He is a virtual lock for a nomination. He is at the helm of this year's critical darling and will be taken along for the ride. He has already one the Critic's Choice, Los Angeles Film Critics, and Golden Globe awards. He gave Slumdog Millionaire the feel that has made it such a success. He certainly has a good deal of momentum and several key pre-cursors. He also made his film with a cast of relative unknowns, a difficult feat for a director.
Cons: Unlike his film he probably is not the favorite going into this race. He has won more than his share of awards but has not been dominant. He has the least impressive overall resume going in and as much as we hate to admit it, past work is always factored in to Academy voting.
Overall Chances: Excellent. He is a lock for a nomination. And he is in a toss-up with 40-40 toss up for the win with David Fincher. I like his odds.

- David Fincher -

Pros: He won the National Board of Review award and has recieved all of the necessary key nominations. He has an impressive resume of beloved films and has had a career with much critical and audience acclaim without a great deal of recognition. The visual style and effects of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button are also more impressive than that of most of his competitors with the exception of Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight.
Cons: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is doing well but his directing is probably it's high note. It's not getting the acting or screenplay wins that are necessary to give a film proper momentum.
Overall Chances: Excellent. He is probably the front runner at this point, ever so slightly edging out Danny Boyle. However, it really is a toss up.

- Ron Howard -

Pros: He has a Golden Globe and Critics Choice nomination. He also has a previous win for A Beautiful Mind and a great deal of industry respect. The film is getting great reviews and will likely be nominated for Best Picture in which case the director usually gets brought along.
Cons: Does not have any pre-cursor wins. The film is also visually unimpressive and relies mainly on the strength of it's tremendous actors. If their is a film that sort of directs itself this may be it.
Overall Chances: He stands the best chance of being knocked off the pedistal. There are several directors that are nipping at his heels and if one director of a Best Picture is likely to be left out it may be him. Don't be suprised if he misses the cut. If he does make it through it will be an honor just to be nominated as he stands little chance of winning.

- Christopher Nolan -

Pros: His film is a jaw-dropping, breath-taking masterpiece. He has taken an entire genre that before was simply there to bring in ticket and popcorn revenue and entertain the masses and transformed it into art. He scored a Director's Guild nomination and was the Los Angeles Film Critics runner-up. He also has a very impressive resume of films with absolutely no critical failures among them.
Cons: Some people still refuse to respect the genre. He was also snubbed from the Golden Globes though that could be do to the fact that The Dark Knight has not been released in several foreign countries. His nomination would be largely unprecidented.
Overall Chances: Fairly decent. His prowess as a director is undeniable and he occupies the other 20% in that aforementioned coin flip. However, there is a reasonable chance that he could be snubbed and not nominated at all.

- Gus Van Sant -

Pros: Has a Best Picture lock that should deliver him a free ticket to a nomination. Has the requisite Director's Guild nomination. Also has a solid film resume that includes much beloved films such as Good Will Hunting. Honestly and poignantly captured the life of Harvey Milk in a bio-pic during a turbulent political climate in regards to his subject matter.
Cons: Sean Penn is really the stand-out of the film, not the directing. There aren't a lot of special effects and the visual aethetic is not as convincing as some of the other nominations.
Overall Chances: Not great. Could pull out a win due to his subject matter but I really don't like his chances. He does, however, stand an excellent chance of getting nominated.

- Other Possible Contenders -
Darren Aranofsky, The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Woody Allen, Vicky Christina Barcelona

- A Director That Should Be Nominated -
Ben Stiller, Tropic Thunder

Who will win: David Fincher will edge Danny Boyle. A wild guess, a gut feeling.
Who Should win: Christopher Nolan. He made the best movie and re-defined a genre.

Best Actor

The Projected Five:

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost / Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

- Richard Jenkins -

Pros: Scored a Screen Actors Guild nomination. There also is usually one performance from the first half of the year that gets brought back into Oscar consideration. He has received rave reviews and Oscar may want to honor a lesser known actor.
Cons: He is a lesser known actor and does not have the clout of many of his competitors. His performance is in a smaller film from a while back that may not be remembered by others and seeing as his performance is the only major buzz that the film has going for it he lacks the momentum that is often necessary to push a more subtle performance through. He also missed on a Golden Globe nomination.
Overall Chances: Decent chance of being nominated, no real chance of winning. He's sitting in about the four spot for a nomination but he could get bumped in favor of a higher profile actor like Leonardo DiCaprio.

- Frank Langella -

Pros: A veteran actor who should have been nominated in the past but has been snubbed and is due to be recognized. He gives a powerhouse performance in which you totally get sucked into the belief that you are watching Richard Nixon. He has also scored both Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations to go with his massive amount of critical praise.
Cons: The only thing that can be considered a con is his strong competition. He is a lock for a nomination but Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn have been taking all of the pre-cursor awards and he has yet to win one.
Overall Chances: Marginally decent. I would say that he is staring at a bronze medal right now but could push towards a win. Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have to be considered the front runners but he could hang with them and it would not be a huge shock if he were to pull off a win.

- Sean Penn -

Pros: He is a former winner (Mystic River) who has a great deal of Hollywood clout and respect. He is playing a spot on role of a man who is greatly revered amongst a large percentage of the voting audience. He has a Screen Actor's Guild win, a New York Film Critics Circle win, and a National Society of Film Critic's win. He has all of the requisite pre-cursors and the indignation of the passage of Proposition 8 is likely to cause supporters of the gay community to circle the wagons and give Milk some more votes.
Cons: There really are not any real cons. He did lose the Golden Globe to Mickey Rourke but that is hardly a concern. Maybe his biggest concern is that he is a recent winner and the Academy might want to spread the love around a little.
Overall Chances: An absolute lock for a favorite and the front-runner. He will have to hold off some pretty steep competition from Mickey Rourke though.

- Brad Pitt -

Pros: A Hollywood megastar who has done several quality films over the last decade and has not been recognized by the Academy since his Supporting Actor nomination for 12 Monkeys at the 1995 Oscars. The film is getting rave reviews and he has the ever so difficult task of playing a character at all the different ages of his life and playing that character in the opposite order in regards to his physical acting and his mental acting. A daunting task that he pulls off. He has also successfully scored Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild nods.
Cons: Could lose out to DiCaprio and doesn't have the any pre-cursor wins. This is a year with a lot of competition in this category and there are several threats. With three spots already locked up he'll have to fight with a few people for the two remaining spots.
Overall Chances: Fair to Midlin'. I expect that he will bet nominated though he could just as easily not get nominated and he really doesn't stand much of a chance of winning.

- Mickey Rourke -

Pros: He is an absolute lock to win. He offers up a stunning performance from a man that most of Hollywood didn't think had any more decent roles in him. The magnitude of his comeback story has people getting behind him and he is surely gaining momentum. The movie has near unanimous critical praise and he has a Golden Globe win and a Los Angeles Film Critics' runner-up award to go with his Screen Actor's Guild nomination.
Cons: He has probably pissed several people off during his steep downward spiral out of Hollywood. That may come back to haunt him.
Overall Chances: Is running neck and neck with Sean Penn. This is almost a toss-up though I think that most people would consider him a slight underdog.

- Other Possible Contenders -
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Josh Brolin, W.

- An Actor That Should Be Nominated -
Colin Farrell, In Bruges

Who will win: Sean Penn will edge Mickey Rourke. He will be propelled by his industry respect and Proposition 8 backlash.
Who Should win: Mickey Rourke. His performance was ridiculously brilliant, heartfelt, and moving.

Best Actress

The Projected Five:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

- Anne Hathaway -

Pros: A fantastic performance in a critically-acclaimed film. She has all of the pre-cursors and guild requisites including a Critic's Choice win and a National Board of Review win to go with her Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild nods. A talented, respected actress with a varied resume that includes kids films, prestige picks, and blockbuster comedies.
Cons: She is in a smaller film that may not get seen by some of the lazier voters and a few of her counterparts have more momentum on their side with Golden Globe wins.
Overall Chances: Pretty good. This is in all honesty a four-woman race. She is in the thick of it but she is not the favorite. However, she is a total lock for a nomination and does stand a puncher's chance of winning the Oscar.

- Sally Hawkins -

Pros: She is the critics' darling right now. She has racked up most of the pre-cursor awards including a Golden Globe and awards from the Los Angeles, New York, and National Film Critics Circles. That is hitting the trifecta. She has a boatload of momentum on her side and more buzz she can stir up the better her chances of winning the Oscar.
Cons: She is in a smaller film and it is a comedy which rarely bodes well. She was snubbed by the Screen Actor's Guild which is never a good sign since they comprise a good deal of the Academy's voting. She also has a significantly less impressive resume than her competition though there really aren't any actresses working today who have a resume that can compete with Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet.
Overall Chances: Not to shabby. I don't necessarily like her chances but if there is a dark horse upset pick at these Oscars this might be it. Her film is much hotter with the critics than it is with the industry but her performance is undeniable. I just wouldn't put any money on it because she's a bit of a long shot.

- Melissa Leo -

Pros: Her performance is critically lauded. She has snagged a Screen Actor's Guild nomination and was the runner-up for the Los Angeles Film Critics Circle.
Cons: Her film is very small and was probably passed over by a lot of voters. It also came out early in the year and is by no means fresh. She missed out on a Golden Globe nomination and does not have the name recognition or industry clout of a lot of her competition.
Overall Chances: Not great. There are several actresses, including powerhouse Anjolina Jolie, who are jocking for what appears to be one open spot in this category. She has the performance and the reviews to be considered the leading contender for spot number five but it would come as no suprise at all if she was left out. As far as winning goes, she stands no chance.

- Meryl Streep -

Pros: The first pro should always be that she is Meryl-Fucking-Streep. She gets nominated for movies like Postcards from the Edge. This role is an Oscar nomination for any actress and for Meryl it puts her in definite contention for the win. She has a Critic's Choice win to go with her Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild nods. She is locked in.
Cons: There really aren't cons when you're Meryl Streep and you already have 14 nominations. However, she has drawn negative reviews when compared to the powerhouse stage performance of her character given by Cherry Jones.
Overall Chances: Good. She is a lock to be nominated and is lurking right behind Kate Winslet as the favorite to win. I don't expect her to win because she's done enough winning already and I think the Academy would like to award a fresh face but the Academy also likes to award Meryl so you never know.

- Kate Winslet -

Pros: She has put up consistently great work for the past 14 years and has walked away empty-handed from the Oscars thus far. She snagged the Golden Globe and is nominated by the Screen Actor's Guild. Her performance is a powerful one and she is being considered the heir to Streep. This might be the Academy's time to honor her.
Cons: She might also be nominated for her role in The Reader. Some voters may decide they want to honor her work but may not know where to do such. I think that her nominations are likely to split votes amongst voters and that most will not vote for her in both categories.
Overall Chances: The front runner. As of right now, it is a tight race. However, Winslet appears to have an edge on the competition and given her impressive body of work sans previous recognition she might be able to muscle out Streep and Hathaway for the award.

- Other Possible Contenders -
Anjolina Jolie, Changeling
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Kristen Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long

- An Actress that Should Be Nominated -
Abigail Breslin, Definetly, Maybe

Who will win: Kate Winslet will edge Meryl Streep. The passing of the torch will be official at this year's ceremony.

Who Should win: Anne Hathaway. A Grim Slamdango of a performance. She plays a character that is relatable and pitiable yet unlikeable at the same time.

Best Supporting Actor

The Projected Five:

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

- Josh Brolin -

Pros: The film is heating up with buzz and his performance is being lauded with critical praise. He managed to win the New York Film Critics award and has snagged a Screen Actor's Guild nomination. There are also those voters who will want to reward him for an excellent performance in W. that will go unrewarded and those that still believe that he got dicked last year for No Country for Old Men.
Cons: His screen time is minimal. He will split votes with other Milk supporting actors (James Franco and Emile Hirsch). He was snubbed from the Golden Globes. He is competing against Heath Ledger.
Overall Chances: He is a virtual lock for a nomination but if he was looking to win he should have been nominated in a different year. I can't see him beating Heath Ledger.

- Robert Downey Jr. -

Pros: Is having a hell of year, with Iron Man and Tropic Thunder both hitting in the same summer and raking in both critical praise and mucho dinero he has a lot of buzz and momentum going for him. He got the requisite love from both the Golden Globes and the Screen Actor's Guild. He's a story and a personality that people want to get behind.
Cons: He is in a comedy spoof movie which the Academy normally frowns upon and he has yet to actually win a pre-cursor.
Overall Chances: You will begin to see a recurring theme going on with these chances. He staring down the barrel at a sure fire nomination but with Heath Ledger's The Dark Knight performance in the race you can't like his chances.

- Phillip Seymour Hoffman -

Pros: More and more he is becoming known as the prestige pic actor in Hollywood. This is the second consecutive year that he is being seriously considered for multiple roles. His popularity and industry respect are a big advantage. He also has the Golden Globe and Screen Actor's Guild nods in his corner.
Cons: He has won no pre-cursors and as a recent winner the Academy may want to spread the wealth to a great actor like Heath Ledger who is in his last role rather than Hoffman who surely has many more nominated roles to follow.
Overall Chances: His chances at a nomination are way strong, his chances of winning are pretty much non-existent.

- Heath Ledger -

Pros: His tragic passing is obviously going to be the factor that will be considered whenever the Best Supporting Actor award is discussed. However, aside from that matter it has to be admitted that his performance is simply remarkable. It is a once in a generation absolute slamdango of a performance. He is raking in the early pre-cursors and won the Golden Globe. He appears to be a one-man wrecking crew.
Cons: There might be those who think that awards like this are for the living who can enjoy them and those that resent the fact that his passing is behind much of the hyperbole about his performance.
Overall Chances: There is very little that stands in his way of becoming the second posthumous acting winner. If I had to bet the farm in a category it would be this one.

- Dev Patel -

Pros: He somehow managed to sneak his way into the Supporting Actor category when I think that most would agree that he is a better fit for the lead actor. He also has the benefit of starring in the year's critical darling. He was flying under the radar but recently receiving the Screen Actor's Guild nomination should push him into the forefront.
Cons: He is a relatively young, unknown actor and he already missed out on a Golden Globe nomination. He is gaining momentum but it might already be too late.
Overall Chances: His chances of scoring a nomination is a toss-up. He is sitting in the five spot right now and is hit or miss. If he does score a nomination I believe that he stands the second best chance of winning, though that chance is still not a very good one.

- Other Possible Contenders -
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
James Franco, Milk
Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky

- An Actor That Should Be Nominated -
Aaron Eckhart, The Dark Knight
&
Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married

Who will win: Heath Ledger will beat all comers. I don't even expect it to be that close.
Who Should win: Heath Ledger. His performance was an absolute masterpiece. Sadly, I doubt we will see anything like it for a long, long time.

Best Supporting Actress

The Projected Five:

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Tajari Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marissa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

- Penelope Cruz -

Pros:
Cons:
Overall Chances:

- Viola Davis -

Pros:
Cons:
Overall Chances:

- Tajari Henson -

Pros:
Cons:
Overall Chances:

- Marissa Tomei -
Pros:
Cons:
Overall Chances:

- Kate Winslet -
Pros:
Cons:
Overall Chances:

- Other Possible Candidates -
Amy Adams, Doubt
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Freida Pinto, Slumdog Millionaire

- An Actress That Should Be Nominated -
Kristen Bell, Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Projected Five:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,
The Dark Knight,
Frost / Nixon,
Revolutionary Road,
Slumdog Millionaire,

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button -

First Post of the New Year Edition

I have a lot of catching up to do.

Did I Make It Edition

Did I make It?

Har Har Edition

Hardy Har Har.

Yep Edition

Yep.

This is just a placeholder Edition

This is also just a placeholder.